Roger Rusch
President
TelAstra, Inc.
Robert Sharples
President
Sharples & Associates
This workshop will provide tools and techniques for evaluating
satellite business plans. The session will begin with a brief overview of the types of
satellite communications services which are being proposed and developed. Next, there will
be a short review of some of the most significant risk issues in satellite communications
including the use of non-geostationary satellites, elliptical orbits, time delay
(latency), service quality, link margins, rain fading, elevation angles, onboard
processing, passive intermodulation problems, and intersatellite links.
This workshop will primarily examine the practical elements of a
business case. The sessions provide tools and techniques for testing the validity or
credibility of each element of the pro forma. It is designed to examine the defining
elements of the program. Examples will be taken from current programs. Among the aspects
which will be reviewed are:
Market demand predictions: Why have some estimates been highly
inaccurate? What methods provide better estimates? Computation of satellite capacity. How
can you determine capacity?
Capital cost estimates for satellites, launch vehicles, and insurance:
What tools are available to estimate costs and anticipate overruns?
Program development schedules: How long will it really take to build
the system?
Operational cost for satellite systems: What does it cost to operate
satellites? How many satellites will need to be replaced due to failures?
Service provider costs: What cost does the service provider have? How
much of the retail revenue goes to the service provider and to the satellite operator?
Expenses for equity and debt: What returns do equity partners expect?
What interest rates are paid for project debt financing?
Revenue ramp up: How rapidly will customers adopt the service? Earth
terminal costs. What factors determine the terminals cost and acceptability?
Regulatory issues: What rules or laws could limit profit potential?
