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Workshop: Roger
Rusch Workshop Format In the past 10 years, promoters have announced dozens of new satellite communications projects. Based on the predicted market size, cost, schedule, and capability the business cases look good. Investors have been impressed by the potential profit of these projects, but the financial analyses are no better than the assumptions. Some propositions are based on untested, high risk concepts. Some of these initiatives have excellent prospects, but others have no profit potential whatsoever. The purpose of this workshop is to provide tools and techniques for evaluating satellite business plans. The day will begin with a brief overview of the types of communications satellite services which are being proposed and developed. Next, there will be a short review of some of the most significant risk issues in satellite communications including use of non-geostationary satellites, elliptical orbits, time delay (latency), service quality, link margins, rain fading, elevation angles, onboard processing, passive intermodulation problems, and intersatellite links. This workshop will primarily examine the practical elements of a business case. The sessions provide tools and techniques for testing the validity or credibility of each element of the pro forma. It is designed to examine the defining elements of the program. Examples will be taken from current programs. Among the aspects which will be reviewed are: Market demand predictions. Why have some estimates been highly inaccurate? What methods provide better estimates? Computation of satellite capacity. How can you determine capacity? Capital cost estimates for satellites, launch vehicles, and insurance. What tools are available to estimate costs and anticipate overruns? Program development schedules. How long will it really take to build the system? Operational cost for satellite systems. What does it cost to operate satellites? How many satellites will need to be replaced due to failures? Service provider costs. What cost does the service provider have? How much of the retail revenue goes to the service provider and to the satellite operator? Expenses for equity and debt. What returns do equity partners expect? What interest rates are paid for project debt financing? Revenue ramp up. How rapidly will customers adopt the service? Earth terminal costs. What factors determine the terminals cost and acceptability? Regulatory issues. What rules or laws could limit profit potential? Workshop Topics Fundamental Assumptions
Supply & Demand
Exploring a Business Case
Winning the Customers
Final Questions & Answers Your Workshop Leader TelAstra, Inc. is an technical management consulting firm dedicated to universal communications service. The company counsels service operators, system producers, and investors in business and financial aspects of the telecommunications industry. The firm has published comprehensive records of the cost, schedule, technical, and operational performance of all the communications satellites built and launched. TelAstra has performed comprehensive studies for several clients and published two reports called Financial and Business Evaluation of New Multimedia Satellite Systems. Roger Rusch is a pioneer in the satellite communications industry with 38 years of contributions to space technology. He has been responsible for the management of all aspects of satellite manufacturing including design, systems engineering, production, testing, and business development. He has held senior positions at Hughes Space and Communications Group, Space Systems / Loral (then Ford Aerospace), and TRW. Who Should Attend? The workshop has been prepared for a wide range of professions in the satellite communications industry including financial analysts, program managers, systems engineers, suppliers of components and earth terminals and other investors in satellite communications projects. |